As Alive as Elvis
Sunday, 9 September 2007
On Saturday morning I found a copy of the full Bin Laden (2007-09-07) video. It is 677 Megs and took over two hours to download. By Saturday evening I had finished analyzing the video, and I completed the audio analysis this morning. (There is also a 3-minute version that is the first 3 minutes from the full video.)
My findings? I strongly believe that Bin Laden is dead.
Let's see how I did on my Friday prediction...
The big question is: is the audio from Bin Laden? I'm not an audio expert (yet) and since I don't know Arabic, I cannot tell if there is an accent or if the accent changes. I do know that the room echo and background sounds change during different audio clips. And there are so many splices that I cannot help but wonder if someone spliced words and phrases together. I also cannot rule out a vocal imitator during the frozen-frame audio. The only way to prove that the audio is really Bin Laden is to see him talking in the video, but all references to current-events come during the frozen-frame section.
So is Bin Laden still alive? I see no proof of his existance that is newer than three years ago. Bin Laden is as alive as Elvis.
Update 15-Sept-2007: The Internet Archive has indexed the video. Their archive includes the full 677 Meg Mpeg version, as well as smaller versions and other formats.
My findings? I strongly believe that Bin Laden is dead.
Let's see how I did on my Friday prediction...
- "Assuming the video includes animation and not a still picture, the clips will contain splices."
I nailed this. There are some very obvious places where the video has been spliced. Here's some examples:
- 1:39 -- A little more than a minute and a half into the video is a splice. He goes from looking out to looking down in less than 1/25th of a second.
- 13:13 -- The second splice. Not as big, but definitely there.
The video itself was filmed in two takes. The first section opens the video and ends at 1:56. The second section begins at 12:29 and continues until 14:01. That's right: the entire 26 minute video has less than four minutes of animated footage. The rest of the video just shows a still-frame of Bin Laden. The two sections are clearly from different recordings because the desk is closer to the camera in the second section.
- 1:39 -- A little more than a minute and a half into the video is a splice. He goes from looking out to looking down in less than 1/25th of a second.
- "The video will not contain any new content. Instead, it will contain a series of clips from old videos."
The video shows Bin Laden in his white hat, white shirt, and yellow sweater. This is the same clothing he wore in the 2004-10-29 video. In 2004 he had it unzipped, but in 2007 he zipped up the bottom half. Besides the clothing, it appears to be the same background, same lighting, and same desk. Even the camera angle is almost identical.
So here's my question... If you were on the run through mountains on foot, would you be carrying around unnecessary clothing? No - you would only take the essentials. A fancy shirt and yellow sweater are not essential for mountain life on the run. If, in the future, you find that you need a nice shirt and sweater, you would get new ones.
Yet here is Bin Laden in the same clothing, same studio, same studio setup, and same desk THREE YEARS LATER. In fact, his stack of papers that he reads are moved between the exact same stacks. If you overlay the 2007 video with the 2004 video, his face has not changed in three years -- only his beard is darker and the contrast on the picture has been adjusted.
What are the chances of nothing changing (except his beard) in three years? Virtually zero. The clips appear to have been recorded three years ago.
The audio does make reference to relatively current events (people and places). However, these references are ONLY made during the frozen-frame portions and only after splices in the audio track. The animated portions make no references to current events.
- "The video will probably be interspersed with footage of fighters and warriors engaged in battle." I missed this. Instead of fighters, they simply have a frozen-frame of him.
The big question is: is the audio from Bin Laden? I'm not an audio expert (yet) and since I don't know Arabic, I cannot tell if there is an accent or if the accent changes. I do know that the room echo and background sounds change during different audio clips. And there are so many splices that I cannot help but wonder if someone spliced words and phrases together. I also cannot rule out a vocal imitator during the frozen-frame audio. The only way to prove that the audio is really Bin Laden is to see him talking in the video, but all references to current-events come during the frozen-frame section.
So is Bin Laden still alive? I see no proof of his existance that is newer than three years ago. Bin Laden is as alive as Elvis.
Update 15-Sept-2007: The Internet Archive has indexed the video. Their archive includes the full 677 Meg Mpeg version, as well as smaller versions and other formats.

http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=5463.0
We believe your analysis may greatly assist in finding out the truth to many of the deceptions we are subjected to on an hourly basis.
Thanks
http://www.hotconflict.com/blog/2007/09/new-osama-bin-l.html
Some were taken down due to bandwidth issues. (Imagine 100,000 people all trying to download a 677 Meg file.) A few people claimed to have received letters from the government stating that they were distributing terrorist materials. (Which, technically, would be correct.) I do not have either issue -- I do not have permission from the copyright holder to redistribute. (Yes, even As-Sahab has rights under Copyright law.)
There are a couple of different version floating around. The main file, "s.MPG", is 677 Megs (sha1:b4137dc358a68574f8a6849dc332fb19d83a3481). There is also an 86 Meg version with lower quality graphics but all of the audio. I think this file is named "os_asd.rmvb".
referring to your findings concerning the forging of the latest Osama-bin-Laden tape - to which I wholeheartedly agree - I'd like to draw your attention to the magnificent film named "LOOSE CHANGE 9/11 cover up" http://www.loosechange911.com/index_main.html , which was produced by some students several years ago.
In there, the producers of said film explain a method developed by some NSA-laboratory: How to digitally remaster ANYONES voice to another individual's voice in a matter that, even that person himself would not be able to discern the slightest difference between a real and a false take.
Add this information to your own personal findings about the "new" OBL-tape, and you have, what's needed to be known about this incidence.
Sincerely ours,
Michael Schaefer
Germany
I am the guy who dissected the "Bin Laden Confession Tape" of Dec. 13, 2001. You can find the articles I wrote linked through my homepage.
I did not bother with any afterwards.
A couple of cautionary observations:
1. The fact that it was old footage reused is not proof that bin Laden is dead, we cannot even assume that he is; we can only say that he was not on that tape.
2. The fact that there is a version out there on the web that is 677 Megs blows my mind. Can you imagine the bandwidth needed to just serve 1,000 visitors. Something is fishy about this version; no idiot in a moment of maximum stupidity would post such a file. On the other hand, I might be wrong, I am old fashion and still use dialup.
Loose Change guy: You are dumb. Read Popular Mechanics debunking of the Truthers.
A 677 meg version is unsurprising in that it will fit on a standard CD-ROM disk. There's nothing fishy about it, these videos are generally transmitted by hand on CD ROM or videotape in the Islamic world. They don't have the greatest bandwidth in South Waziristan.
I am far from being dumb. Before answering a question I didn't put up, please read my posting again and take note that, I was only referring to a method of mimicking other people's voices, which was developed by Los Alamos-Laboratories in Charge of the NSA, and was REPORTED of on LOOSE CHANGE.
[Moderator censorship: Off-topic rant removed. Please take your argument with Pax elsewhere.]
There are so many misrepresentations and cherry picked facts in that film you shouldn't refer to it if you expect anyone to take you seriously.
That's the most intelligent thing I can think to do with it. The "prevent wave of martyrs by keeping him alive" notion isn't a bad one - it wouldn't be b/c the administration cares what terrorists think, but rather a better-the-devil-you-know sort of argument.
I know I'm giving all of them a hell of a lot more credit than they deservce.
I had written a few paragraphs in this comment but I don't want to be labeled a conspiracy theorist, so they were removed and replaced.
I agree with your conclusion. I'm more interested in who doctored it than why, and I would truly, truly love if whomever did this gets caught and outed (unlikely). In a perfect world we would see public outcry as we're told that our precious {three letter acronym of your choice} doctored this tape. Just think of the shitstorm that would follow.. maybe the general public would start to wonder if OBL is truly dead, and if we're being lied to on a daily basis.
It's a shame that we'll likely never know for sure, and nobody will ever be held accountable. Also a shame that we live in a world controlled by the media machine and influence of public opinion.