The Hacker Factor Blog

There are some things that just cannot be easily explained without calling someone a liar. For example, what happened to Neda Agha-Soltan?

• Protesters who recorder her shocking death said that she was shot by pro-government Basij militia who were on a nearby roof.
  
  
• However, some reports that blame the Basij militia conflict with other reports. For example, the BBC reported:
  

  That's when she was shot dead. Eyewitnesses and video footage of the shooting clearly show that probably Basij paramilitaries in civilian clothing deliberately targeted her. Eyewitnesses said they clearly targeted her and she was shot in the chest.

  
  The problem that I have is with the phrase "clearly...probably". Either it is certain (clearly), or it is likely (probably), but it can't be both. Using both is like a "definite maybe" and really means nothing.
  
  
• The government-run Islamic Republic News Agency said that Neda was a case of mistaken identity. She looked like the sister of a terrorist. This makes me wonder: is it a standard policy in Iran to kill relatives of criminals? Is it a policy to shoot first and validate later? If this happened here, there would be rioting in the street. Oh wait, Iran's got that. (Unless you follow the government-run media, in which case, there are no riots nor protests.)
  
  
• Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Hassan Ghadiri speculated that the CIA were behind her death. He said, "it could be the CIA". Uh, Ghadiri? The CIA are not that competent.
  
  
• While reports and video show that she was on the street, the government-run Iranian PressTV has decided that she was shot in an alley. This same report claims that there was a clash between protesters and security forces, and that no security forces were present. (Then who were they clashing with?) Quoting directly from the PressTV report:
  

  She was shot dead on June 20 in an alley away from the scene of clashes between security forces and demonstrators in Tehran.
  
  The man who drove her to hospital said in an interview that her death looked "highly suspicious", claiming there were no security forces or Basij members nearby.

  
  
• Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has decided that Neda's death is "suspicious" and called her death "propaganda".
  

  "The massive propaganda of the foreign media, as well as other evidence, proves the interference of the enemies of the Iranian nation who want to take political advantage and darken the pure face of the Islamic republic," [Ahmadinejad] said in a letter to [Ayatollah Hashemi] Shahroudi, according to the [PressTV] news agency.

  
  Wow... it took Ahmadinejad nine days to make a statement and all he can do is call it 'suspicious' and 'propaganda'? That seems like suspicious propaganda to me. You know, it is just a matter of time before Iran claims that her death was suicide, followed by "she's not dead" and "it was filmed in Langley".

There are two many conflicting stories. Someone must be lying. Considering that Iranian government representatives (ambassadors, clerics, and government-controlled media) change their story every other day, I'm going to have to side with the video footage and flood of independent witness reports: rooftop sniper by pro-government militia with a government cover-up.

Sunnyside Up

And speaking of Iranian-run media... Today's Tehran Times has a picture on their front page that I just cannot explain.


Here's the picture:


This version of the picture is too small and too low quality to apply luminance gradient, error level analysis, or other complex analysis algorithms. All results would be inconclusive. The only tools I'm left with are "observation" and "measurement".

Here's the problem: where's the sun? The sun should only come in through one window. The picture has the sun in three windows. The central cameraman only has one shadow. Drawing a line from the shadow to the person goes straight to the middle window's sun. If those were spotlights and not the sun, then he should have three shadows. The Ayatollah (guy sitting down on the right) only has one shadow, and it only aligns with the right-most window.

Another problem is that the cameraman has a very long shadow, but none of the people on the floor have long shadows. Measuring from the camera-stand itself (floor to top of tripod), an object that is 30 pixels tall should have a shadow that is 21 pixels long. The sitting audience are about 30 pixels tall, but they don't have long shadows. Even the people right behind the cameraman are missing long shadows.

I really don't know how this could be possible, unless the image is spliced. Perhaps there is a higher quality version available elsewhere that does not have this problem... Then again, my mom thinks that this is because the Ayatollah is the "Sign of God" and can make the sun do whatever he wants.

It is also worth noting that this picture is not attributed to Getty Images, Reuters, AP, AFP, or any other image company that tries to provide undoctored images. No attribution is given, so that implies that it came from the Tehran Times Political Desk.

Breaking Rules

I mentioned in an earlier blog that I had broken one of my rules about image analysis. A friend recently informed me that my findings just came out.

MUFON is the Mutual UFO Network. This month's MUFON Journal includes some of my image analysis applied to a couple of alleged UFO photos. When I was first asked to evaluate them, I was very hesitant... UFO "true believers" are crazy with bias. They want to believe so strongly that UFOs are real that they will ignore facts that show some photos are fake.

I was seriously concerned. It is very difficult to say that an image is real -- usually the results are inconclusive. If I determined that the images "could not be identified as fake", then I would be called a fraud by anti-UFO people, and the UFO people would call this a confirmation. ('Cannot identify as fake' is not the same as 'can prove it is real' or 'beyond a reasonable doubt'.) In contrast, if I found that they were fake, then the true believers would claim that the government got to me.

Fortunately, Richard Thieme (who will be speaking at Defcon 17) and the MUFON International Director, James Carrion, understood and addressed my concerns.

I was provided the pictures and absolutely no background information. The only question I was asked: "Have these pictures been digitally manipulated?" My initial reply was that these were some of the best forgeries that I have ever seen. I then detailed my findings, much of which was included in the MUFON Journal's article. (I understand that MUFON membership includes a copy of the Journal.)

Full disclosure: I was not provided any compensation for this work -- not even a cup of coffee. This work was strictly a donation on my behalf and it was not influenced by any person or government or anything else.

Finally, this was a one-time donation. Don't expect me to break my rules for other people with suspicious photos.

There is a phrase that has been popping up in the media for the last few weeks. "Stop interfering." The accusation has come from Iran and North Korea, and has been directed at the United States, UK, and most European nations.

If you believe the Western media, then our only interference has been on reporting actual events and not the fiction that the Iranian and North Korean governments keep spouting. However, neither country has actually specified the type of interference... Maybe the interference really does exist.

Twins

If you look at the timeline of events, there are a number of interesting similarities between North Korea and Iran. And the alignment of events is far too coincidental.

• Missiles. Both North Korea and Iran have both been testing missiles. Both have had missile failures, and both reported the failures as if they were successes. (I still like that "subaquatic orbit" comment concerning North Korea's satellite. Although, Iran's launch that never happened is also a good one.)
  
  
• Old Photos. Both countries use media manipulations to support their official government statements. In particular, both use undated and provably old photos to support false statements about alleged recent events. I've been reading many news articles from official, government-operated Iranian news outlets. Most stories support the text with old photos. In many cases, photos are timestamped days, weeks, or months earlier. Don't believe me? Look at Iran's Fars News Agency, IRIB, and Tehran Times. The same goes for North Korea's KCNA. The only time the pictures seem current are when the media is seen in the audience.
  
  
• Nuclear Power. Both countries want to be nuclear powers, both claim to not be making weapons, yet both have facilities for refining (weaponizing) uranium. In the case of North Korea, they occasionally threaten using nuclear weapons.
  
  
• Transferring power. Both countries are in the midst of a power struggle. In Iran, there are protests about election fraud, mistreatment of constituents (beating and killing protesters), and threats to crush any uprising. In North Korea, Kim Jong Un has been named the successor to Kim Jong Il.
  
  
• Fake votes. By now it should be obvious to everyone: The Iranian election was a sham. Nobody can count that many votes that quickly. Strong contenders do not lose in their hometowns by a landslide. And the election counts that were eventually released were statistically improbable -- these were fake numbers "randomly" generated by a human and not real vote counts. Why, I haven't seen an election this fake since... North Korea. Last April, Kim Jong Il was re-elected with nearly 100% of the votes.

Common Ground

North Korea and Iran have much more in common than just media manipulations, oppressive governments, hostility toward neighboring countries, and voter fraud...

Iran always wanted nuclear weapons. Eventually they made an offer: they will give oil to any countries that helps them achieve this goal. In the 1980's, North Korea stepped up. Guess who is a major oil provider to North Korea? You got it: Iran.

For example, in October 2006, North Korea demonstrated nuclear capabilities by doing a test explosion. By early 2007, the oil began to ship from Iran to North Korea. 2007 was also when North Korea shut down one of their nuclear reactors and Iran increased their uranium refinement. (Anyone want to guess where Iran got the parts from? I'm guessing a closed-down facility from North Korea.)

Just to make sure this is clear: North Korea wanted oil, Iran wanted nuclear capabilities. In October 2006, North Korea demonstrated a working facility. In Feb 2007 they closed the facility, and sent the parts to Iran (April 2007). In return, Iran began shipping lots of oil to North Korea in early 2007.

But it did not start there...

North Korea needed help making missiles. Who helped them? Iran. According to a 2003 report from the LA Times:

North Korean military scientists recently were monitored entering Iranian nuclear facilities. They are assisting in the design of a nuclear warhead, according to people inside Iran and foreign intelligence officials. So many North Koreans are working on nuclear and missile projects in Iran that a resort on the Caspian coast is set aside for their exclusive use.

And which countries keep telling the US, UK, and EU to "Stop interfering"? North Korea and Iran.

Can you hear me now?

So what is this interference? The US, UK, and other EU nations have taken a stance to police the waters. As sanctions are levied against North Korea, it becomes more difficult to transfer anything between North Korea and Iran.

Adding to their concern, the United States, UK, and EU have amassed a significant number of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. If you look on a map, then you will see that this effectively surrounds Iran. They cannot easily ship over the water, and secretive land-based shipments between Iran and North Korea are almost certain to be intercepted. "We're fighting terrorists..." uh, yeah, that's one reason to be there.

Are we interfering with North Korea and Iran's ability to work together and work secretively? Yes. Should we continue? Definitely. Together, they have managed to share weapon technologies and are increasing their threats against neighboring nations. Both nations are rapidly progressing beyond saber rattling toward all-out-war.

Finally, neither North Korea nor Iran give specifics about how we are interfering. For example, Ahmadinejad recently told the US to "stop meddling" in their affairs. The claim is that we are interfering with their election protests. However, they don't specifically say how we are interfering. I believe this is because they don't want to admit that we are hindering their abilities to construct nuclear missiles and attack their enemies.

Considering that both countries are actively testing missiles and North Korea keeps testing nuclear explosions, I kind of think that they are planning for the post-development phase. Think about it: first you make the weapons, then you use the weapons to remove all interference.

Rumors circulated last January about Apple's CEO, Steve Jobs. Following complications from his pancreatic cancer treatment, he considered a liver transplant. Well, today the news is reporting that he had a liver transplant.

Being a big fan of Apple, I have to ask: where can I get an iLiver?

Unobstructed

The human liver is one of the most complicated organs in the body. It is more critical than the heart, kidneys, or even the brain. We have artificial hearts, dialysis to offset damaged kidneys, and even machines to keep a body alive when the brain is dead -- but until now, we have not had anything that can replace the liver. God bless Apple for the iLiver.

The iLiver performs all of the basic functions: breaking down fats, creating amino acids, urea, and glycogen, and even filtering blood. However, the iLiver does much more...

Veni Vidi Vici: iCame, iSaw, iConquered

Apple has always been on the forefront of medical research. And while they have not yet released a formal statement about the iLiver (due out after Thanksgiving), it is believed to follow Steve Jobs' view on other essential peripherals. The iLiver is smaller and much more energy efficient than a standard liver. It is a green device -- capable of being passed to other people when it is no longer needed. And most importantly, it has fewer buttons. Steve Jobs hates buttons.

The iLiver interconnects with the host body, but also includes five USB 3.0 connectors (codename 'Liver Spots'), a 3G wireless interface, and is Bluetooth enabled. Currently running the much-anticipated iBody 3.0 operating system, the iLiver is expected to be fully compatible with iPhone 3.0 and iTouch applications.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is also rumored to be venturing into other HCI systems. An iKidney and iBladder are reportedly in the works. Each component operates independently or can interface as an entire system. The company is even considering changing their slogan from "Think different" to "An Apple a day".

The Internet Storm Center periodically mentions about fraudulent domains. Basically, right after a major event, scammers will register domain names related to the event. "There was a hurricane? Quick! Register domain names!" It is not just that it might happen, it is certain that it will happen.

Similarly, major events are associated with doctored images. Even though Iran has cracked down on mass media coverage, I have been waiting for the doctored images to arrive. Well, they're slowly trickling out.

A Few Drops Form A Flood

Iran has barred the mass media from reporting on the situation in Iran. Most reports of the post-election rallies are from citizens with cell phones and digital cameras. They take the pictures and post them -- with little time for any image modification. So far, this flood of visuals seems clean and not modified.

In contrast, the Iranian government and government-run media are taking their time to release images. The delay means that they have time to modify images.

The DailyKos reported on one doctored image that appeared in the government-run newspaper.

People in the background were replicated in order to hide the edge of the crowd. In effect, they hid the true size of the crowd.

However, there is another problem with this image: it is undated. It was released in the media to show that there are ongoing post-election rallies for the incumbent Ahmadinejad as well as for challenger Mousavi. Up until this point, videos and footage had only shown pro-Moussavi rallies and not any for Ahmadinejad.

But there's a problem... As I mentioned when Iran released doctored missile photos: they didn't just modify photos. They modified old photos. Their 2008 missile launch was supported by photos from 2006. I did not just expect doctored images from the Iranian government; I expected doctored images from old photos! And I wasn't disappointed.

Here's the original:

The timestamp in the image's meta data matches the date from the open directory at the government-run MEHR news: Monday, June 08, 2009. That is BEFORE the election. They didn't just doctor a picture, they doctored an old picture.

To date, I have seen no photos of any post-election pro-Ahmadinejad rallies. Although there are reports of pro-Ahmadinejad rallies, they mainly come from the government-run media and do not include photos that can be dated or collaborated with non-government photos. Consider the number of citizen photos that are coming out, one would think that someone would have captured at least one picture of a pro- rally...

Rewriting History

Ahmadinejad has a long history of rewriting history. For example, he is believed to have been a key hostage taker during the US embassy hostage crisis in 1979. Of course, Ahmadinejad has denied the association.

I'll let you decide whether the 1979 hostage taker looks like today's Ahmadinejad...


Then there was the conflicting reports around a boating incident in the Strait of Hormuz. Although the US has acted questionably, the Iranians supported their contradictory claims by releasing footage from a totally different incident.

And then there is his denial of the holocaust, claim that there are no gays in Iran (even though they keep killing the ones they find), and more...

With this established track record, it certainly comes as no surprise that Ahmadinejad would claim to win the election. Regardless of how the population voted.

A Reason to Riot

There are many reasons to question this election's outcome. First, it should have taken days to count all of the votes, but it only took hours to declare the winner. Second, presidential nominees normally win in their home districts. I mean, nobody expected Obama to win in Alaska -- Alaska went to Palin. Yet, Moussavi's own hometown allegedly went to Ahmadinejad.

More interesting are reports of a suspicious death. Quoting the Guardian:

The man who leaked the real election results from the Interior Ministry - the ones showing Ahmadinejad coming third - was killed in a suspicious car accident, according to unconfirmed reports, writes Saeed Kamali Dehghan in Tehran.

Mohammad Asgari, who was responsible for the security of the IT network in Iran's interior ministry, was killed yesterday in Tehran.

Asgari had reportedly leaked results that showed the elections were rigged by government use of new software to alter the votes from the provinces.

Asgari was said to have leaked information that showed Mousavi had won almost 19 million votes, and should therefore be president.

This situation is definitely becoming a tsunami.

I thought the world had undergone a dramatic change last October. It wasn't the election that had me concerned, nor the economy, banks folding, massive layoffs, nor even threats from Iran and North Korea. No -- this was much more serious: Mother's Cookies declared bankruptcy.

Mother's Cookies -- with their colorful, icing covered circus animals -- were part of my childhood. They were always around for special occasions, from my first day at kindergarten to the post-dissertation party for my Ph.D. So you can imaging my shock last October when the grocery store had red signs that said "Discontinued Item" in front of the Circus Animals, Double Fudge, Vanilla Creme, and other treats that I associate with "Victory!"

However, things are never quite like they seem. Last weekend we went grocery shopping and saw six shelves full of Mother's Cookies! "Huh? I thought they went out of business?" Turns out, they did. But last December they were purchased by Kellogg, who restarted production. The cookies began hitting the shelves last month, and arrived here last week. This revival of my favorite treat by Kellogg brings a new meaning to "They're GRRREAT!"

Just when you think you know how something is going to end, events make a sudden, abrupt turn, keeping you on your toes.

Iran's Election

Last Friday (12-June-2009) was the election day in Iran. Just as the world watched the US election and hoped for a president better than Bush, everyone was watching Iran and hoping that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the holocaust-denying, war mongering, lunatic would be voted out of office.

The initial reports were staggering: early estimates said that 50%-75% of voters had turned out. They later revised it to around 80%. To put this into perspective, the voter turnout for the "Obama vs McCain" general election was around 62%, and that was the largest turnout ever. Iran had so many voters that they extended the voting hours twice, just to accompany the long lines of people.

Unlike most open countries, Iran does not permit external monitors to ensure a fair election. But unofficial exit surveys were showing that Ahmadinejad was losing -- and it would be a landslide victory for the challenger, Mir Hossein Mousavi. However, the media seems to have been eating their cookies too soon...

Shortly after the vote counting began, it was announced that Ahmadinejad had a strong lead. Mousavi accused Ahmadinejad of blatant voter fraud. Shortly after that, riots started in Iran. And I'm not talking about a small crowd of angry people -- this is a full blown revolution with government crackdowns and violence. Reports even surfaced of Mousavi being placed under house arrest. While Iran's state-run paper denies the arrest.

During the 1989 uprising in Tianamen Square, China attempted to keep the world in the dark by censoring the media. Well, Iran seems to have tried to follow suit. Shortly after reports of the rioting surfaced, Tehran's cell phone service went offline and media was blocked from reporting the news. According to one report:

The British Broadcasting Co. said that electronic jamming of its news report, which it said began on election day Friday, had worsened by Sunday, causing service disruptions for BBC viewers and listeners in Iran, the Middle East and Europe. It said it had traced the jamming of the satellite signal broadcasting its Farsi-language service to a spot inside Iran.

However, in today's always-connected world, censorship is not an option. Reports have gotten out through twitter, Facebook, MySpace, Picasa, and dozens of other online services. Iran may not want the world to know about the fraud, riots, and crackdown, but the world still knows.

Like I said: Just when you think you know how something is going to end, events make a sudden, abrupt turn, keeping you on your toes.

North Korea

Not to be out done, North Korea is still threatening nuclear war amid claims that Kim Jong Il's son, Kim Jong Un, will be the next leader.

Considering all of the craziness going on, you just know that the transition won't be as peaceful as the media describes.

Like any good movie, we're just at the end of Act I. Obama is the new President, Iran just had elections, North Korea is transferring power to a new leader, and Mother's Cookies has returned from the dead. Act II will begin with an unexpected twist, and lead to a head-on confrontation with a series of challenges -- each more difficult than the last. But remember: Act III is where the real ride begins.