Analyzing videos is not a trivial task.
As most people who follow the news know, there was an
incident in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. Basically, a couple of Iranian gunships (read: speedboats with guns) are accused of coming too close to a few US battleships in international waters.
The Navy released video footage of the confrontation between US ships and Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the footage was clearly not complete -- there were multiple cut-aways (switching between video from the helm and pictures from out the window). In fact, the entire video is only a few minutes long. According to a
spokesman for the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, the incident lasted approximately 30 minutes. So, there should be at least 30 minutes of video to analyze.
Then the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) released their own video. It also was incomplete -- showing cut-aways and lasting a little more than a minute. The video, Iran claimed, proves that the Pentagon released a fake and doctored video. However, a 1 minute splice of video does not prove that the three minutes of video are fake.
Both video clips (available from the BBC
report #1 and
report #2) show an overcast sky and light chop on the water. Both videos show at least three blue speedboats with 2-3 people each. The people are wearing orange vests. There is nothing to indicate that they are not showing the same event, but also nothing to indicate that it is the same event. (As
Dr. House says, "Everybody lies.")
Following the video release, Press-TV (the Iranian government sponsored TV channel) released an
update:
IRGC: US Navy audio, video fake
Wed, 09 Jan 2008 11:51:52
IRGC says the US video of Sunday's incident in Hormuz Strait involving Iran patrol boats and US ships is archive footage and the audio is fake.
A member of the Navy Forces of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) told Press TV on Wednesday that the footage released by the US Navy had been compiled using file pictures and the audio had been fabricated.
Earlier Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad-Ali Hosseini said the incident was a normal identification request by the Iranian side.
Hosseini explained that exchanging messages to identify ships in the Persian Gulf is routine.
Washington earlier claimed that IRGC speedboats harassed three US Navy warships in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
The US Navy later released footage purportedly showing Iranian boats menacing US Navy ships in the Persian Gulf.
RE/RE
As someone who analyzes videos, I have a few big problems with all of this:
- Incomplete videos. Neither the Pentagon nor the Iranians have released the full videos. Both sides show selective clips. If the US Navy wants to easily show that they are telling the truth, they could release a longer section of video or audio (no splices and no cut-aways) that includes the same time-frame found in the Iranian footage.
In contrast, if Iran is telling the truth -- that the video from the Navy really is fictitious -- then they could release more video showing the entire incident. (Iran only released a little more than 1 minute of video.) At minimum, the US video shows the ship's horn sounding, but the horn is not heard in any of the Iranian footage.
- Analyzing video. Iran has made a very serious claim: they state that the video from the United States is fake. Yet, they provide no evidence. When I say a video is fake, I prove it -- I show my analysis methods, results, and provide enough information for other people to duplicate the analysis. If you want to say that I am wrong, then you must prove that I am wrong. With Iran, they have made an unsubstantiated claim. How did they analyze the video? Where is the data for other people to confirm (or refute) the claim? What Iran has done is nothing more than vigorous handwaving.
If Iran were to release the full video, allowing other people to confirm the claim, then it would seriously strengthen their argument and cripple the Pentagon's credibility. However, if the US released their video to confirm their claim, then Iran would be caught in a lie. (Not that they haven't already confirmed the incident, denied the incident, and then accused the US of lying.)
For example, Press-TV reported that the US video was file footage from the Persian Gulf. However, both videos show the same kind of sky, same kind of water, and no shoreline. While this could be two different locations, there is nothing distinctive other than "open water". How do they know it is the Persian Gulf?
In fact, there is something that suggests the videos are from different events: the sun. The US footage shows the sun low on the horizon. The Iranian footage shows the sun high in the sky. Considering that the incident happened early Sunday morning, the sun is at the wrong height for the Iranian video.
- Claims against splices. Probably the most damning evidence of misinformation comes from the Pentagon. It seems one of the short videos released by the Pentagon included a spliced audio segment with a threat: "I am coming to you ... You will explode in a few minutes." The Pentagon is now saying that this audio clip was spliced into the video and that they are not sure of the source. They then identified three other similar boating incidents.
There are many problems with this. First, the Pentagon did say the audio was received around the same time and was spliced into the 3-minute clip. However, we don't know when the threat was recorded. Both sides have released heavily spliced videos. As viewers, we don't know what is real.
The US says that Iran's videos show only part of the incident. This is supported by the Iranian video that shows boats facing the US ships, then a splice with one ship returning from the US ships at a high speed. In contrast, Iran claims that the US fabricated the audio and use file footage from the Persian Gulf for the video. Neither side has substantiated their claims.
I think the best summation of this incident came from Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates who said in a
press conference:
Well, with respect to the latter and the charges of fabrication, I think that the most appropriate answer is actually the one that I heard on television last night from former Secretary of Defense Bill Cohen, who said, "Are you going to believe me or your lying eyes?" I think that aptly characterizes and appropriately characterizes the Iranian claim.
I'd like to believe my eyes, but neither side has provided actual video evidence. Thus, I am extending an open invitation to both the Pentagon and the Iranian IRGC: Send me a link to your full video and I will analyze it. If either video has been spliced, doctored, or fabricated, then I believe I will find it.
Without further evidence, I believe that neither side is telling the full truth. Both sides have released selective splices to the mass media. The US spliced in an audio threat that may not have come from the Iranians, the Iranians released video that did not come from "early morning", and the Iranians claim that the US video is old file footage without providing any proof.
[See the followup blog entry:
Sea of Lies Part II.]
